Geopolitical Analysis: The Preemptive Strike in Lebanon - Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah (August 25th)
Summary
In recent months, the Middle East has witnessed a series of dramatic events that led to peak tensions between Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah. Targeted killings of senior officials, military and diplomatic responses, and American intervention have created a complex geopolitical reality that threatens regional stability. This article analyzes recent events, their implications, and the challenges facing each of the involved parties
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Background: Targeted Killings of Senior Officials and Immediate Consequences
On July 30, 2024, Israel carried out a targeted killing of Hezbollah's Chief of Staff, Fouad Shukr, in Dahieh, Beirut. According to foreign sources, the operation was carried out using a precision-guided missile launched from an Israeli fighter jet. The following day, on July 31, Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader, was targeted and killed in Tehran while attending the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, who took office after his predecessor died in a helicopter accident.
These events dealt a severe blow to the Iran-led axis of resistance. They exposed significant vulnerabilities among the senior leadership of Iran-backed terrorist organizations and highlighted Israel's advanced intelligence and operational capabilities. The success of these operations demonstrated Israel's ability to deeply penetrate the information systems of Hezbollah and the Iranian regime, to reach and strike complex targets, and its willingness to use these capabilities when deemed necessary.
However, it's important to note that strategically, Haniyeh's elimination did not significantly contribute to Israel's position in dealing with Hamas. Yahya Sinwar, who manages the campaign against Israel from Gaza, was also elected as the head of the organization's political wing, replacing Haniyeh, thus completing his full takeover of Hamas. In contrast, the targeted killing of Fouad Shukr is considered a significant blow to Hezbollah's operational capability, an organization perceived as a more significant long-term threat to Israel.
Regional Reactions and Implications
In the wake of the targeted killings, reactions were swift. The Iranians responded harshly, with a series of threatening statements and expressions, from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei down to lower ranks in the regime. Hezbollah also joined the chorus of threats, leading to a sharp rise in regional tension. In Israel, as often happens in such situations, media networks began intensive coverage of the threats, causing concerns among the Israeli public.
However, as in previous cases, the rapid intervention of the United States helped calm the situation. The American administration took significant steps to deter Iran: sending the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier to the region, deploying nuclear submarines in the Middle East, and dispatching a squadron of F-22 fighter jets, the most advanced fighter of the U.S. Air Force, considered capable of penetrating Iran's air defense systems.
Additionally, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin publicly committed to defending Israel. These steps emphasized the importance of the strategic alliance between Israel and the United States, especially in times of crisis. Moreover, they exposed Israel's growing dependence on American aid for its defense, as revealed in the "Night of Missiles" on April 14, when American forces assisted in defending Israel's skies - a fact that contradicts Israel's long-standing declarations of absolute security independence.
Strategic Considerations: Iran and Hezbollah
Despite the fundamentalist ideology of the Iranian regime, it appears that decision-makers in Tehran have chosen a pragmatic approach. They concluded that they could achieve more through negotiation than through direct confrontation with Israel, which could lead to a wide-scale regional war.
Iran's current strategy seems to serve its interests well: Israel continues to be involved in a prolonged war of attrition in Gaza, eroding its resources and strength; internal tensions in Israel, which intensified following the dispute over judicial reform, have returned to divide Israeli society; and negotiations with the West may allow for easing of economic sanctions imposed on Iran, without giving up the significant progress made in its nuclear program.
It's also possible that Iran fears Israel is trying to draw it into direct confrontation, aiming to create an opportunity for a significant strike on the Iranian nuclear program - a scenario Iran wants to prevent at all costs.
Hezbollah, for its part, found itself in a complex situation. The organization felt that Israel had crossed several red lines, especially with the targeted killing of its Chief of Staff in the heart of Dahieh - its stronghold in Beirut. The militant declarations of the organization's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, about imminent revenge, placed him in a difficult dilemma: how to respond without risking unwanted escalation. It's reasonable to assume that Iran also pressured Hezbollah to avoid action that could lead to an all-out confrontation with Israel, especially when the latter is on high alert. As a result, Hezbollah was forced to choose a measured and limited response, preserving its honor without jeopardizing its strategic interests and those of its patrons in Iran.
Israel's Preemptive Strike
The Israeli Air Force, in close cooperation with the intelligence apparatus, identified Hezbollah's preparations for a large-scale retaliation and launched an extensive preemptive operation to thwart the planned attack from Lebanon. This operation was one of the most complex and impressive carried out by the Israeli Air Force in recent years.
The attack began at 04:30, about an hour and a half before sunrise in southern Lebanon. This timing was likely chosen to preempt Hezbollah's planned time for starting a massive attack on Israel, which was expected to begin at first light, around 06:00. According to reports, the Israeli Air Force struck about 207 targets using 100 aircraft operating simultaneously in a relatively small area. This scale of air activity in a limited time and space highlights the advanced operational capabilities of the Israeli Air Force.
The Israeli strike successfully destroyed hundreds of launchers, thousands of rockets, missiles, and suicide drones prepared for launch by Hezbollah. The strike targets were spread over a wide area, both south and north of the Litani River, indicating the extent of Hezbollah's preparations and the depth of Israeli intelligence penetration.
Despite the heavy blow it suffered, Hezbollah managed to respond with unprecedented force, launching haundreds of rockets towards northern Israel in a short time. The barrages were dense, with about 30-40 precise short-range rockets fired towards specific targets all over the north of Israel. Simultaneously, dozens of suicide drones were launched. This coordinated attack was designed to deplete Israel's "Iron Dome" interceptors in rocket interception, allowing the drones to reach their targets.
In response, the Israeli Air Force launched another wave of strikes at 07:30, this time focused on destroying the activated launch sites. Despite Hezbollah's efforts, by the end of the day, only about 320 rockets and 20 drones were launched towards Israel, significantly fewer than originally planned. It's important to note that despite the scale of the launches, there were no civilian casualties on the Israeli side, though one soldier was killed by fragments of an interceptor missile.
Interestingly, Hezbollah reported only two casualties in the Israeli preemptive strike. This data raises two possibilities: either the launch process was supposed to be carried out automatically, without significant human presence, or Israel deliberately chose an early strike time to minimize loss of life. Both possibilities indicate the technological and operational sophistication of both sides.
According to intelligence assessments, Hezbollah's planned targets included strategic objectives in Israel, among them the Glilot base and Unit 8200 facilities near Tel Aviv. Hitting these targets could have led to a dramatic escalation and possibly even a regional war, as Israel would have been expected to respond by striking a wide range of targets, possibly including Beirut.
Open Questions for Discussion
Recent events raise several important questions:
1. What are the implications of this event on Hezbollah's overall missile and rocket threat? Did Israel overestimate Hezbollah's capabilities, and should the threat from Lebanon be reassessed?
2. What is the significance of the capabilities demonstrated in this strike for the possibility of a preemptive attack that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi proposed to carry out on October 11, 2023 - a proposal that Netanyahu blocked by adding Eisenkot and Gantz to the war cabinet? Is it possible that Israel missed an opportunity to change the course of the northern front due to hesitation at the political level?
Conclusion
Recent events in the Middle East highlight the geopolitical complexity of the region and the danger of regional conflagration. Israel has demonstrated impressive capabilities in intelligence and operational action, but also exposed its growing dependence on American support. Iran and Hezbollah, for their part, are forced to balance between the need to respond to attacks against them and the desire to avoid escalation that could jeopardize their strategic interests.
Israel's preemptive strike in Lebanon marks a turning point in the containment approach that the IDF has taken so far and in Israel's ability to neutralize complex threats. However, the ongoing fighting in Gaza continues to occupy Israel and divert resources and attention from the threat from the north, which shows no signs of ending soon.
Despite the tactical successes, without an appropriate strategy, Israel will struggle to win the campaign and extricate itself from the war of attrition in which it has been engaged for nearly a year.