The Cabinet has declared two main objectives for the ongoing military operation in Gaza: securing the return of captives and defeating Hamas.
The prospects of a deal to bring the captives home are growing more distant, as time is not on Israel's side. With each passing day, Hamas strengthens its position (based on the equation that survival equals victory), while Israel's standing in the international arena deteriorates and the legitimacy for its continued action weakens.
The second objective is defeating Hamas (which is achievable), but the demand for a "decisive victory" that requires a "victory image" makes it increasingly difficult, if not impossible, to attain.
Hamas is rebuilding its strength while the IDF forces are growing exhausted. Various figures, including those in the government and the military, raise the need to reach an arrangement and end the campaign.
An objective assessment of the situation on the ground reveals a complex picture. The IDF is currently operating two regular divisions in Gaza, after withdrawing five divisions earlier, which gave Hamas time to recover. The operation in Rafah and the Philadelphia Corridor is achieving success but is also accompanied by serious incidents with civilians and the Egyptian military. The return to previously captured and evacuated areas in the northern Gaza Strip indicates the difficulty in achieving a decisive victory.
Hamas is taking advantage of the pauses to fortify its positions and build new forces, and the number of casualties among IDF troops continues to rise. No less severe is the mental and physical strain on the soldiers, as noted by military commentator Amir Rappaport.
Continued losses among IDF forces and a shortage of experienced commanders raise concerns, alongside logistical issues such as ammunition shortages. The question arises whether Ben-Gurion's past strategy of swift victory and shortening the duration of fighting is still relevant today.
Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Udi Dekel from the INSS proposes a multidimensional approach to achieving the objectives and defeating Hamas:
1. Continuing the military effort to eliminate the operational combat frameworks of Hamas's military wing throughout the Gaza Strip, to prevent the rebuilding of its strength and its ability to disrupt the political and economic measures to stabilize the area.
2. Establishing a local governance alternative to Hamas in areas liberated by the IDF, such as in the northern Gaza Strip, and a controlled return of residents while preventing the return of Hamas members and maintaining an Israeli military presence for security (similar to the situation in the West Bank).
3. Engaging in an international diplomatic process, with the assistance of the US, European countries, and moderate Arab states, for the basic reconstruction of the liberated areas, to allow a gradual return of civilians to normal life.
4. Continuing the extensive humanitarian effort, with the help of local forces and the IDF, to build renewed legitimacy and prevent Hamas from taking control of aid distribution.
5. Promoting the normalization process with Saudi Arabia and moderate Arab states, with a balanced commitment to a diplomatic process for resolving the Palestinian issue, as part of the Biden administration's regional vision for an alliance.
6. Integrating an effective cognitive effort to strengthen residents' trust in the process and neutralize Hamas's influence.
However, some argue that the current political constellation in Israel makes it difficult to implement such a process.
The war in Gaza has been on going for many months with no clear end in sight. The IDF continues to fight with dedication, but achieving a genuine and sustainable victory requires a judicious combination of military force with political, economic, and civilian measures. The responsibility for formulating a comprehensive strategy lies with the political and military leadership, who will need to make difficult decisions to extricate Israel from this challenging situation.